Let's say the worst scenario develops - there is a US recession which leads to a global recession.
Actually better still(or should it be worse still) - let's make it a depression !
Guess what will happen to the Aus dollar .. seeing that Australia is such a commodity based economy - that's right the Aus dollar will be worth perhaps 50 cents US or even less.
So even if the metal prices (expressed in USD) plummet by say 30% the $Aus will plummet by perhaps 40% and more to which should offset the effect of lower metal prices anyway.
So the bottom line is BHP will probably make as much or even more money anyway .,, and be in a position to take advantage to buy other resource companies very cheaply ,, as uninformed investors panick and all the resource companies get dumped and plunge in value.
the informed and strong companies such as BHP should prosper in this turmoil and clean up big time.
The weak will get weaker whilst the strong get stronger.
when the global economies become healthy again ..as they do .. BHP emerges much bigger than before and has even more of the global share of the resources and control of the metal prices.
My theory .. it sounds plausible anyway.
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