Thanks Mattkid for a great post - really informative and well...

Thanks Mattkid for a great post - really informative and well considered.

I agree that if abuse deterrents are mandated then the total prescription opioid market will reduce as abusers switch to illicit. (Statistics are already showing a sharp upswing in heroin use in the US, with Mexican drug lords happy to supply demand.)

On the other hand, there have been many responsible doctors and nervous legitimate pain sufferers who have been avoiding oxy to date because of addiction and abuse issues. Their increased willingness to use and prescribe oxy may partially offset the abusers moving out of the market.

REMS I see as ultimately a good thing, forcing more prescriber and user focus on the relative benefit/risk ratios of available prescription opioids. Pitted against its competitors on that basis, I see the POH patch emerging as a winner.

I also agree that the FDA's response in March will be pivotal. Irrespective of the FDA response, I don't see Zogenix being a real winner longer term. Teva, Purdue and Egalet are too hot on their heels with abuse deterrent ER hydrocodone formulations.