I will PROBABLY still join you Guys here.GW I had once traded,...

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Popeye82

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31/01/21

12:43

Post #: 50581587
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Originally posted by CURLYFUND: ↑

The stock is ripping hard at the moment so i thought it worth considering what the upside case is here...

Here a two ways I think ofit:

1: Top downmethod
Legal cannabis sales in the US are currently $16bn (as recently quoted by Jeffries investment bank)
They assume 50% of this is 'therapeutic' versus 'recreational'
Of that $8bn, one might assume at least 50% is used to manage 'pain' (other uses being anxiety and sleep)
That suggests a market size in the US only of >$4bn for 'pain'
Since MDC's Nanabis product is the only cannabis product currently scheduled for Phase 3 FDA trails for 'pain', it could be a very large part of this market. Particularly assuming that any doctor would effectively be obliged to prescribe Nanabis in place of any other non-approved drug.

2: Comparison toGW Pharma (GWPH)
The best global comp for what MDC could be in 5 years time is GWPH
Citi values GWPH at US$5.95bn, as per the Sum-Of-Parts valuation below
GWPH's core product, Epidiolex, is the only FDA approved cannabis product globally. However, it is only approved for use in Epilepsy, not pain or anxiety. It currently is doing $400m turnover per annum, but Citi has it forecast it to do around $1.6bn in 2025 - see below.
The question is, what would MDC be worth if it were the only cannabis product with FDA approval for 'pain', which is a much, much larger market than epilepsy? Something larger than US$5.95bn??? It seems crazy, but go back and have a look at their Phase 2 trial results for MDC… they were very promising

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I will PROBABLY still join you Guys here.

GW I had once traded, long Time ago already, MDC I already know for Years, since around IPO(?) I mean.

Good Luck All Hunters, and a Favourable FDA.
MDC Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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I will PROBABLY still join you Guys here.GW I had once traded,...

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