The $41B seems way too high. If my math is correct, Turkey paid $25.6/mcf which is very expensive. I closely watched Turkish natural gas prices in 2022 as I was invested in a natural gas producer in Turkey. Natural gas prices briefly hit $30/mcf in Turkey during the 2022 gas spikes after Russia invaded Ukraine but that was unusually high and is a lot higher than I would expect for 2019. For reference, the gas price paid to producers in Turkey is currently around $12/mcf and natural gas prices in the US are $2.51/mcf.
The below website mentions that Turkey pays over $40B per year for imports of their oil, natural gas, and coal. I wonder if the reporter accidentally used the number for all energy imports rather than just natural gas?
https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-turkey-oil-and-gas
Personally I've been assuming Invictus will get $3 to $10 per mcf when the gas is sold to end users. $25.6 is way higher than I expect. With that said I've increased my position by about 200% since the discovery so don't want to necessary discourage people from investing. I just think these numbers are way too high and that something must be wrong in the article. Below is the math to convert to $/mcf:
41,000,000,000 / (1.6 * 10^9) = $25.625/mcf
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