Yes I understand what you are saying about bid tactics and I agree with the logic. I just think it is more likely that they will close below 90% rather than give the price a big bump. We will see...
I admit I'm no biotech expert but I do a lot of valuations and biotech valuations give me the willies. You can make the value whatever you want based on the probabilities you ascribe to success at each stage. At the end of the day it is binary. I also think it is pretty cheeky to use 2007 discount rates post-GFC, and valuation is very sensitive to that. Net result of all that is that I'm happy at $1.35-1.40. If anyone says that is a lowball bid then I hope they were buying every share in sight for all those months it was trading around $0.80.
AAH
arana therapeutics limited
