Been looking back very quickly at historical sequences. Unless I am mistaken earnings guidance was reiterated around November 2015 when the SP was already in massive decline to try to stem the exodus when SP was around 2.60 bucks. However notwithstanding the reiteration the SP declined to about 70c. Would be interested to see them how reiteration could have caused any loss ..... save for perhaps a few who may have bought in a very short window of time of 2/4 weeks..... and then they would have to show they bought because of the statement issued and nowithstanding the then existing and quite considerable press and broker insight. I'm struggling then to see how even a relatively small number of S/H's can expect to evidence loss even if it can be argued that within 6 months of a massive acquisition that would take time to evaluate SGH perhaps ought otherwise to have been aware. The only other risk is based on the original guidance and whether it was correct to have issued that. I can't see how that can arise as it would have been based on the numbers know at time of acquisition. Otherwise the risk appears to be whether and when SGH should have made an announcement within first 6 months after acquisition..... with rationalisation, bedding down etc yet to take place..... then of course projects and guidance is not much more on educated finger in air.... if the education is wrong then so too is the air.... only issue is whether the education was supported by reference to a) information then available and b) expectation of revenue...... that imbalance can be explained by slow NIHL resolutions alone with only 1m revenue and which appears to have been significantly below par and expectation... so if SGH can show that expectation was founded on a reasonable basis if all that plays out I'm struggling to see where the CA is heading ..... seems to be an entirely speculative claim with a wing and prayer of hope. That appears to be reinforced by the period in question April 15- Feb 16.I can't see how it can be anything else as the investigation undertaken can only be based on what is already in the public domain .... so questions arise.... but that is a long way off from establishing a claim. Will know more on disclosure. I suspect the issue of a claim is likely to be met with an application for dismissal and strike out. I would also suspect SGH have been working on lining up their own position for as long as the CA has been known about and they have all the information and documents to hand and would already have no doubt received advice about where they stand in all this..... the advice they will have had will crystallise into their response to the claim .....which will of itself I think be quite telling as to trend and expectation of any success in the claim.
Interested in others thoughts to stimulate some debate with something of more value that tripe threads and posts whilst the SP does its thing.
SGH Price at posting:
38.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
