Minority holders will not get a fair deal by yelling and screaming. We will not get a fair deal by pointing out gross misinformation provided as to why the buyout price was good and is still good. PEP and Apex and Management would lose all credibility if they came out and said 'oh, yes, we tried to transfer wealth from minority holders pockets to our pockets; you caught us out, so we are now going to offer the most logical price of $1.21'
Now, my opinion is that Zenith is NOT worth $1.21 now. It is 'worth' somewhere around 90 cents (my opinion) right now. And you know I think it will grow without much doubt to $2 a share over the next three years. Now, of course, management would never be allowed to MOVE shares from the minority to their mates at the current, market price. There is a premium for a buyout. The premium currently looks like 10% to me. That low premium is unheard of (on a low level) on the ASX to take over a profitable, viable, growing, moated, growth industry company.
Now PEP and Apex and Management know all that I am typing. Everyone knows. It is not a mystery. So I conclude that PEP and Apex and Management need to come up with some method to assure a 'yes' vote and not lose face. Their explanations as to why the $1.01 is fair and reasonable to minority holders may not even get through the first court case. The judge and the independent reviewer need to agree to the $1.01 (they need to represent us minority guys).
Now as we pointed out, PEP used an EBITDA multiple on 2019 Calendar year
Using the SAME multiple to the current EBITDA yields $1.21
As Arrow pointed out with some maths, if the rollover guys simply distributed the cash earned month by month for the few months of this delay, that yeilds, once again, $1.21.
All, all ways and angles you look at this, the $1.01 is about 20% too low.
Now, the purpose of this thread is 'how can PEP and Apex and Management pay a fair price and at the same time save face - and not become under ASIC scrutiny for trying to 'pull a swift one' on minority holders.
My guess is this: they will take Arrows approach and say 'oh, look, we have discovered some extra cash in coffers, so because of the scheme delay that was completely out of our control (not really, but wink, wink). And we will distribute it.'
The other approach is to bite the bullet and 'admit' Zenith is more profitable in the first half of CY2020 compared to first half CY2019. And simply pay more based on that.
PEP and Apex and Management will want to avoid a 'no' vote. An unfair and unreasonable offer invites a 'no' vote. Apex considered the price unfair and unreasonable when they were the sellers (having their shares forcibly moved from their pockets to PEP and Management pockets). Now that they are buyers (having other shareholder shares moved from others pockets to their pockets), they love the price. Just that fact alone tells you a lot about the price.
