Good post Lobvig and I agree with your observations.I have been...

Good post Lobvig and I agree with your observations.

I have been following/shareholder of HDR for five years now and I must admit that I was appalled by Voelte's bowl of spaguetti comment concerning Tiof.

To me it reflects either complete incompetence from WPL or as you say "a strategic play"

Here is why Tiof is not a "bowl of spaguetti":

(1) Tiof is a Miocene Canyon filled sand, the aspect ratio is about 10km long by 1 km wide, so it is definitely not in the shape of a "bowl"
(2) The "rivers or channels" at the bottom of the canyon which produced the coarse porous sand were definitely not randomly oriented as suggested by the "bowl of spaguetti" analogy. Although they would meander they would still be generally oriented along the axis of the canyon and flowing from east to west!
(3) The aspect ratio of the individual channel sands would not be circular as suggested by the "bowl of spaguetti" analogy, they would be a lot flatter, say a linguine or fettucine...

The bottom line is that the appraisal drilling was completed quite a while ago and it seams to me like Tiof has a lot going for it:

1 billion barrels of oil in place (how much recoverable?)
Good quality oil
Good porosity sand with good flow on test
High oil price!

So if the goal of WPL and partners is to optimise shareholder returns they should get on with the job of commercialising this discovery...

In terms of strategic playing by Woodside, they might be considering the introduction of a new partner to help pay and develop Tiof, hence the delay tactic...

They may have been rattled by the recent coup and thinking of diversifying/swaping some of their Mauritania stake for another good position elsewhere...

Just a thought...