Nobody doubts that if Holdfast1 hits the huge width of shale...

Nobody doubts that if Holdfast1 hits the huge width of shale discovered by Encounter 1 (some 21kms away) that the SP of both ADE and BPT will leap. Confirmation that the shale structure is porous and suited to frcking will see another (probably bigger) jump in SP. Everyone's speculating re what news will eventuate and what are the probabilities of success? Hence, over the past 2 months it's easy to forget how much confidence BPT have shown in their Cooper Basin exploration of shale-gas at PEL 218. For example BPT MD commented late last year that : "There is the potential for a very large gas resource of the order of many tens of trillions of cubic feet (Tcf) that could begin to approach the CSG reserves of Queensland. Unconventional gas is a broad term that encompasses a variety of forms of trapped natural gas. The best known in Australia is CSG. However, Australia has hitherto ignored the potential of shale gas, which has become a very significant source of North America?s gas supply over the last decade. Shale is the most prolific source rock for oil and gas. Any shale source rock could produce gas, but production on a scale that is economic depends on certain properties of the shale rock itself. We believe that we have identified areas where shale rocks show properties."

BPT a couple of months ago noted: "The Encounter-1 and Holdfast-1 wells will be vertical exploratory wells targeting the shale gas production potential of the Roseneath, Epsilon and Murteree formations. Extensive coring and logging programs are planned with the aim of better defining volumes of gas in place as well as assessing the mechanical properties and likely deliverability of the formations. The shales of the Nappammerri Trough are considered to share many of the attributes of the prolific shale gas producing provinces of the USA. Fracture stimulation is one of the keys to unlocking gas from shales and it is planned to case and suspend both of these exploratory wells for future fracture stimulation at the earliest opportunity. The outcome of these wells will aid the future planning of a pilot production well expected to be drilled in 2011, followed by a pilot production project after evaluation of the results."

Hence although ADE/BPT is seen by some as high risk/very high reward... perhaps te risk is not as high as i used to think. Future company announcements will tell the story.