how do you price an oil stock

Guys, help me out here. I've been watching AWE for awhile now, trying to get a handle on how the market prices this stock on a daily basis. No luck though as I've seen this thing contradict itself over and over again. Oil up overnight; AUD down I'd expect AWE to rise...........nope. Oil down; AUD up I'd expect AWE to fall...........nope. In fact there doesn't seem to be any particular combination of determinants that moves the stock in an orderly basis.

How in the world is a speculator supposed to play this thing on a day trade. Anybody got a bible on oil trading they can refer me to.