Hi,
@nrl1970Disclaimer
As can be easily see over many posts, I have been a strong advocate for LMG. At the same time, I have been monitoring and assessing Magnium, their aspirations and their progress. You say, "They are well behind" but in my opinion, that is not the case at all. Magnium, by all accounts are head-to-head with LMG and are the only real competition in Australia.
I have had private conversations with Magnium and have a good swag of information regarding their progress. The emails from Magnium are in strict confidence and so I am going to be very careful about what I say. Emails have been received due to my interest in becoming a shareholder of Magnium, in addition to my holding with LMG. My caution is not intended to be mysterious or ominous, I have simply performed my own research. I strongly suggest that all investors do their due diligence.
My post will start with what is in the public domain regarding Magnium, then I will make some comparisons to LMG and finally I will try to give some vague hints (not financial advice) regarding
possible outcomes. Readers should be able to read what has been identified as opinions or personal appraisals and not take the information included as dependable or financial advice.
....
Magnium has three locations they have been considering, Victoria, Western Australia (Collie) and Queensland (Rockhampton).
Rockhampton has been squashed for now but both Victoria and WA projects are supported by their respective State Governments (Premiers, Andrews and McGowan).
Queensland
From the Courier Mail (I do not have access but believe this snippet from the Magnium website is from 2021)"Magnium Australia will build a magnesium smelter at Stanwell,
near Rockhampton, following a $25m pledge from Coalitiondespite interest from China.
The Australian government has committed $25.75m to Magnium Australia to build a magnesium plant in Rockhampton, which will use CSIRO patented technology to produce up to 120,000 tonnes of pure magnesium metal a year. This technology has attracted significant interest from China, as it is more efficient than the current pidgeon process used in China, producing between 0-4.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of magnesium. The development of the plant is expected to create 400 direct jobs and 1100 indirect construction jobs by 2029."
https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?https://www.magnium.com.au/news/ (Third article from the bottom of the page)
26/08/2022
"Stanwell walks away from major Qld magnesium project"
"A proposal to build a world-first decarbonised magnesium refinery in Central Queensland has been stopped in its tracks as a Queensland Government corporation seeks to reserve their land for other “future energy” resources."
https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?Now take note of that $25 million pledge and consider it for WA based upon what the WA State Government is doing and how the pledge for Queensland is likely now to be applied to WA.........
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Victoria07 September 2022
A critical minerals start-up is conducting a ground-breaking study with support from the Andrews Labor Government that could lead to the world’s first net-zero magnesium foundry being built in Victoria with technology developed by CSIRO.
National science agency the CSIRO has developed a patented low-emission process for creating high-purity, high-value magnesium, which if proven commercially viable would make Victoria and Australia a major player in a $7 billion global industry and set new benchmarks for clean production.
Minister for Economic Development Tim Pallas today visited the CSIRO’s base in Clayton and alongside leaders of the start-up Magnium announced the Government was co-funding the feasibility study.
The CSIRO’s patented MagSonic nozzle hypersonically cools molten magnesium into a fine powder of greater than 99.8 per cent purity, which can be pressed into ingots for transport. The study will explore ways for Magnium to scale-up the technology and build a magnesium refinery in Victoria.
The company forecasts a Victorian foundry could produce up to
120 kilotons per year of magnesium for export – more than 10 per cent of global supply – creating $1 billion in annual earnings at current prices.
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/backing-net-zero-minerals-revolution-jobs-and-investmentThe above project for Victoria appears to be on ice for the moment while Magnium makes massive moves in WA for the first plant at Collie.
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Western Australia
The McGowan Government is by far Magniums greatest advocate. The $2 million was provided by the WA Government. The WA Government has money galore and has a high consciousness of the fact that minerals are their ticket for the continuation of State profits and economic viability.
In addition....
Collie Power Station will close in 2027"A new
$547.4 million Collie Transition Package (Magniums first plant is being established at Collie) will support the town of Collie and surrounding regions over the next decade, t
o grow new industries and local jobs -
bringing the McGowan Government’s investment in the town’s transition to over $662 million."
https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2022-08/Collie%20Just%20Transition%20Factsheet%20-%20June%202022.pdfMmmmm, no wonder Magnium chose Collie. But that's not all. When I first started to look at Magnium, the only feedstock being talked about at Collie was waste water from the desalination plant that is rich in magnesium. The feedstock for Rockhampton was to be magnesite. The desalination plant is no longer the primary option in WA for now.
Magniums process is being directed to ferro nickel slag! Estimated to be 50 million tonnes of magnesium within nickel tailings that are within a viable distance.
Friday, 17 June 2022·Pre-feasibility study completed into establishing a state-of-the-art carbon neutral magnesium metal refinery
·McGowan Government commits to next steps for the project
·Up to $2 million for detailed study to be undertaken into producing magnesium hydroxide from wastewater
https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2022/06/Green-magnesium-refinery-proposal-for-Collie-reaches-milestone.aspx
Magnium CEO Shilow Shaffier“Things are moving fast, and Shaffier says that the plant will be producing magnesium metal by 2026, if not sooner, with the first smelter producing up to 120,000 tonnes per annum by 2027 – which will be around seven per cent of the global market at that time, he says.” "There is already interest in the yet-to-be constructed plant frominternational entities considering the viability of building a MagSonic plant in China, UAE and the USA", Shaffier says.N.b.I highly recommend reading the following article produced by CSIRO
https://www.csiro.au/en/work-with-us/industries/mining-resources/resourceful-magazine/issue-28/magsonic-slashing-emissions-at-the-speed-of-sound
Again, don't forget the pledge made to Magnium from the Federal Government for $25.75 million! The key comparisons I see are:
1. A. LMG have first mover advantage for the demonstration plant.
B. Magnium have trials commencing in this first quarter (By March) so the race is on.
2. A. LMG have offtakes covering the production from the 10,000+tpa and another 20,000tpa of offtake enquiries.
B. Magnium has global enquiries for offtakes but has not MOU's yet.
3. A. LMG has global patents and their first 100,000tpa plant will be overseas.
B. Magnium has global patents and has international entities considering the viability of building a MagSonic plant in China, UAE and the USA.
4. A. LMG are aiming for zero CO2 emissions but have to find alternative renewable energy sources.
B. Magnium are aiming for zero CO2 but have to find alternative renewable energy sources.
5. A. LMG are converting an environmentally toxic waste material into valuable products zero waste.
B. Magnium are converting a waste into magnesium and do not have to rely upon 40 to 50 % of by-product for revenue.
6. A. LMG have SCM's as diversity.
B. Magnium does not need SCM's for viability.
7. A. LMG is fully funded for the demonstration plant leading into the 10,000+tpa Commercial Plant. Proof of process will bring Government support, pre-payment for offtakes and expansion financial support being offered from Japan.
B. Magnium is privately funded, already has Government support and is scoping additional financial support from Government, private investors and offtake partners.
8. A. LMG have Supplementary Cementitious Materials (SCM's) making up 40 to 50 percent of revenue but shareholders have not been informed of sales, prices, distribution network, etc.
B. Magnium do not have any by-products identified to date but do believe they can use the exact technology used for processing ferro nickel slag to magnesium for the recovery of other minerals such as: copper, zinc, iron, calcium, vanadium and lithium.
9. A. LMG has developed a patented hydrometallurgical extraction/thermal reduction process in collaboration with CSIRO. Australia's national science agency, CSIRO has developed a third process commonly called the carbothermic process.
B. Magnium has the exclusive rights to bring the patented carbothermic process to global scaled production.
9. A. LMG is listed on the ASX (sp 7.7c)
B. Magnium is not listed on the ASX but is privately funded and has Government support (sp $3.50) - OTC (Over the Counter - securities)
10. A. LMG have purchased the site for the demonstration plant and the 10,000+tpa commercial plant.
B. Magnium has purchased land for their processing plant as well as land for the housing of plant employees. Magnium have purchased land for their site as well as land to build accommodation for the site employees.
11. A. LMG really need to get the Victorian Government on board (Andrews). LMG must get the financial support and security for investment from State and Federal Government programs.
B. Magnium has tremendous support from the McGowan Government and very likely, the Federal Government too.
12. A. The LMG plants are able to be expanded with significant shutdowns.
B. Magnium plants are modular and able to be added onto at 3000tpa capacity per module, which enables easier capacity expansion with minimal disruption.
Fundamentally imo, LMG and Magnium are on the same trajectory, their goals and aspiration are very similar. Yet the Magnium project in WA is well advance in State and Federal Government Support. The situation for LMG regarding State and Federal Government support could easily be achieved by the demonstation plant due for commissioning June/July 2023.
My questions are:
Given the state of each producers offtake goals, will first mover be any real advantage at all?
The estimated and forecast size of the magnesium market is set to double by 2030. With China and Russia being the primary producers of magnesium at the moment, will the distain for China and Russia be sufficient that neither LMG or Magnium are in competition at all?
Both LMG and Magnium can make tremendous financial gains in America due to the China anti-dumping policy and the 141% Import tax applied to
LMG has the exclusive distribution deal with MEC ( Metal Exchange Corporation) to sell the majority of its magnesium into North, Central and South America and the Caribbean markets. Is this deal with MEC sufficient to make a substancial differentiation between LMG and Magnium for the meaningful future?
As many have asked, where is Europe in the EV equation?
"Volkswagen AG, Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, and Renault SA are the top 5 automotive OEMs in Europe in 2021 by revenue. Collectively, the top 10 automotive OEMs generated revenue of $966,111 million, with average revenue growth of 24.1%, where the highest revenue was generated by Volkswagen AG ($295,850 million), while the lowest revenue was generated by MAN SE ($12,355 million). The highest revenue growth was registered by Stellantis NV (79%), followed by AB Volvo (18%), and the lowest revenue growth was registered by Renault SA (10.3%). None of the top 10 companies had a revenue decline in 2021."
https://www.globaldata.com/companies/top-companies-by-sector/automotive/europe-oems-by-revenue/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20AG%2C%20Stellantis%20NV%2C%20Mercedes,Europe%20in%202021%20by%20revenue.
25% of all EV's were made in Europe in 2021
https://www.google.com/search?q=what+country+are+the+most+electronic+vehicles+made&gs_ivs=1#tts=0My final note.
The Mag Market is Massive (MMM), China and Russia stink, diversity and options are the prime movers.
Both LMG and Magnium will have their day in the sun (imo).
It is only a matter of months before we truly see who has made some significant ground.
Regards
Ken
