You've basically got two factors here.. basic supply and demand which will rebalance over the course of the year and the huge political risk involved that at the stroke of a pen OPEC (and others) can decide to support the price. I don't think shale producers are going to stop producing even if they go out of business. The banks will keep the assets generating a return if they default and collect the assets. It's mostly about the high decline rates and no new drilling starting to kick in.
The industry has shelved almost $400B capex/exploration and oversupply is under 2%. At some point in a year or three supply is going to crater. Shalers will be able to swing into production again fairly quickly but I think the price will be very volatile. We will DEFINITELY see $100 oil again. Maybe not in a year, maybe not in two but it will spike. jeez even if we just have to wait for inflation to take us there heh.
CVN Price at posting:
7.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)