I see it more along the lines of jocam. While the price rose to...

I see it more along the lines of jocam. While the price rose to 25c it has retreated quickly as not enough buyers see the upside.

I prepared a financial model on COE and estimate current oil in the ground at just under $15 per barrel. On a diluted (for options) basis I value COE around 21-22 cents per share. This assumes that they will continue to spend on exploration which yields nothing. Now this is not really likely to be the case. So i defined some probabilty distributions of between 0 and 3 discoveries each year at an average of 0.5mmbo net to COE. I ran some Monte Carlo Analysis and basically this gives me around 28-35c value for COE.

Cheers
Flash