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Another lens to look at the future life of a technology is the...

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    Another lens to look at the future life of a technology is the Lindy Effect. In Taleb's 2012 book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder he for the first time explicitly referred to his idea as the Lindy Effect, removed the bounds of the life of the producer to include anything which doesn't have a natural upper bound, and incorporated it into his broader theory of the Antifragile. If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life! [5]
    So the fossil fuel age might have some legs yet. Just what disruptive technologies in the energy production, distribution and storage space will come along to change the story who knows? lots of contenders for the punters among us.
 
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