HVY (ASX) How good for HVY are these new tarrifs??

Originally posted by Bargainstocks01: ↑

These new Trump tariffs, IMO make it look even more likely HVY will get into production,

The biggest market for garnet abrasive sand is the USA

There are 2 distinct types of garnet sand
1. alluvial for sand blasting
2. Hard rock for water jet cutting of materials.

the market for Garnet sand is split roughly 40% USA / 30% Europe and middle east / 30% china north east asia.

1. Alluvial Garnet market - this is A$800 per ton the supply is dominated 75% by Australian production- which supplies the USA and Europe shortfall.
Around 15% is from India -(which consumes most its own sand) The rest is from China South Africa S.korea and USA which don't export as their sand is used by them domestically.
So in the alluvial market Australia is the only big global producer and exporter. This comes mainly from the GMA mine directly next door to HVY.
but GMA's. Mine is now 50 years old and depeleting -- hence the alluvial garnet sand market is in severe shortfall - buyers are desperate for new sources - Therefiore i belive the 2 new players HVY and RDG will soon get into proud action to fill this gap. I see no other big new sources anywhere near production. IMO this will happen with opr without tariffs. - Oz has this alluvial market well tied up.

2. Hard rock - but for the hard rock gernet sand its a different story IMO. Hard rock garnet sand is mined and sharper and used for water jet cutting of metals this market is about the same size as the alluvial market - but there are far more producers - from my reserach production is around
36% Oz
30%China
12% South Africa
11% india
7% USA
4% ROW.

The big import markets are again USA and Europe - and so Oz, China South Africa and India all now compete top sell to USA

But now all those countries competing with Oz are screwed why?
the tarrif on oz is just 10%
- but in India chia and s Africa they are now 52-65%

- so they cant compete on price anymore with oz product. .(unless trump changes his policies which he could any day) So that means approx 50% of the hard rock garnet market is now up for grabs by new comer ozzie companies like HVY - 50% of the hard rock garnet market is worth around A$ 500 million IMO.

There are Several mines in oz which produce a lot of excess hard rock garnet as by byproduct in their tailings. GMA I believe already has contracts with some of them to sort the mined crushed tailings, take out the garnet sand, clean it, bag it, sell it ,ship it and then pay the primary miners a commission for it ( their otherwise worthless byproduct.) This is not rocket science - nor does it need big capex- IMO - HVY or RDG could do that too, - especially if product from oz is now so much cheaper than India china and SA can now offer due to such huge tarriff additions..

if HVY can just capture 10% of this new market imbalance in price now opening up - that's could be another A$ 50 million a year they could make. - and it doesn't need much capex to do just connections to the garnet sand buyers (which aaaron has) and to some oz mines with excess by garnet sand product ......which Im confident Hvy has

- A$50 mill year would be a nice extra fillup for a small colike HVY with just 70 mill shares out at 25 cents. - indeed even to catch 2% of this market gap that just opened up would be great.- meanwhile they get on with their main opg mine - but with early cashflow?to help fund it.??

so fingers crossed for them. I hear they just flew off to US for a marketing trip to see the garnet buyers of the USA ??......watch this space.

Expand

@Bargainstocks01
We get it my friend, we gave a high demand product and I know what the MC is.

Anyway, back to it.
Not an ideal market to be releasing any news into so we just have too remain PATIENT. This old fella is still sitting and waiting... and when the PFS come it comes... and then we can start on the DFS.

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