peterpan888I really do not know but the way I see it is;- the US...

peterpan888

I really do not know but the way I see it is;

- the US market has been pushing up day after day (there must be a breather soon)
- telcos have been underperforming
- 10 days to ex-div.
- NBN talk (1st July 2011)

Scenario A - If there is a slight correction (5%) in coming days and with TLS CD in sight we may see a shift to TLS ST which may drive the SP to $3.00. If this pans out TLS ex-dvi could be around $2.84-2.86 and then we wait for the NBN deal to be officially signed off.

Scenario B - If it does not hold around these levels and if a correction happens we may see TLS SP around $2.85-2.90 in coming days and in the lead up to 21st of Feb. When it goes ex-div it could go down to $2.70. If wee see that happening I suspect FF could continue selling so the SP could continue dropping to $2.60-2.65 when it would be good to re-enter.

However, if the NBN deal gets signed off sooner we may see $0.50-0.70 spike in the SP. I do not want to miss out on that. Therefore I am keeping a close eye on TLS even though I have not decided which scenario I should follow.

I've pulled out 25% this morning at $2.90 with an intention to get in if there is a quick dip in price (4-5 cents). If it does not happen and the SP keeps going up I will re-enter before 21/02 to grab 14 cents and then get out (25%) again. With this capital I am trying to pick peaks and bottoms while with the remaining 75% I am hoping to scoop the divi + the spike when the NBN deal gets signed off.

I hope my speculating makes sense.