very interesting. thanks. BTW what is the magic number with...

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Rossco42

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27/10/22

16:38

Post #: 64436863
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Originally posted by Retired123: ↑

"Retired, plug that into your spread sheet and see what you think somebody could afford to pay and still get a reasonable rate of return."

Haven't looked at the spreadsheet for a while and trying to update variables that are pretty rubbery. Have increased CAPEX from STO estimate of US$1.715bn to US$2.0bn. Not sure this is enough as it only represents a 10% increase and high CAPEX was the FID issue. Using US$60 pb revenue and 50% PRRT and royalty however I admit I know little about this but believe 50% is conservative. Using 0.7000 FX conversion.

Based on these variable net cash flow to CVN just for Dorado oil is around US$0.30c per share or AU$0.41. No income tax or NPV calculations done.

Again I believe the variables used (POO, PRRT and royalty) are conservative so there is likely some upside. Also number of shares has increased from 1.5bn to 1.8b and AU$100m cash ignored (say 5c per share). Can update for different variables but CAPEX is the wildcard. I can now understand CAPEX has affected FID as I recall my last calculation had net cash flow of around AU$0.60 but other variables also used.

Of course this excludes Pavo, gas and blue sky exploration values. Value of gas is now more relevant and Dorado, Roc and PS have a lot. Blue sky potential is enormous now that strike rates are good. Bedout could be a real gold mine but buckets of cash required to unlock any value. Hope this helps. Not sure offer of $1.00 per share is reasonable given the current uncertainty. As a SH I would not be interested in selling much below 50c. And a low FX rate may encourage USD company to look more closely.

Spreadsheet is a real back of the envelope analysis but I've tried to be conservative.

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very interesting. thanks. BTW what is the magic number with current $90 poo?

CVN Price at posting: 15.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 18.5¢		Change -0.005(2.63%)		Mkt cap ! $330.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
19.0¢	19.5¢	17.5¢	$2.186M	11.82M

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8	986142	18.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.185	1259013	3
0.190	709179	4
0.195	1094323	9
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very interesting. thanks. BTW what is the magic number with...

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very interesting. thanks. BTW what is the magic number with...

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