There are many scenarios that meet the various criteria/requirements that you have listed.
For example, what is SDV and JB producing exactly?
Are you presuming SDV at 25tkpa of battery quality carbonate to a tier 1 battery co?
Are you presuming JB is selling spod or incorporating conversion and selling a carbonate/hydroxide product..?
Obviously earnings are extremely sensitive to product sales pricing also.
etc
Also, we'd need to assume various things like production costs for SDV (revised flowsheet vs DFS estimates) and JB (?).
Much uncertainty!
In short, there is no short answer!
Perhaps you could run a few scenarios and present some earnings possibilities..?
Then, perhaps apply a P/E or EV/EBITDA to that for a ballpark valuation and share price...?
The uncertainty clearly leaves a lot to be considered. It also makes it very difficult (and unrealistic imo) to try to be specific about forecasting future costs/earnings etc.
Probably sensible, imo, to use some rough figures and look at the sensitivity to various key factors.
For example, a starting point may be a future scenario that looks something like this:
SC6 @ $650/t (to use your number)
Li Carb at $15k/t
MC (includes expanded resource base to extend mine life): 200ktpa SC6 @ say $250/t margin.
SDV: 25ktpa LCE @ say $10k/t margin
JB: Spod + conversion producing 40ktpa LCE @ say $8k/t margin
BTW, this is simply a starting point to examine sensitivities, not my forecast!
That would be earnings (basically EBITDA not net) of around $50m + $250m + $320m = $620m pa.
Assuming 100% ownership and self-funding, that's EBITDA of about USD$1.50 per share
EPS = USD$1 per share..?
Apply P/E = 10? 12? 15? +$10 sp? (USD)
Now, there are of course heaps of "issues"...
e.g. what if MC doesn't have much/any reserves left once JB and SDV are operational? Make that zero if you like.
What about those prices and margins?
e.g. If chem prices are $12k/t instead of $15k/t, that $620m becomes perhaps $425m. EBITDA around USD$1 per share. +$7 sp?
If chem prices are say $18k/t instead of $15k/t, that $620m becomes maybe $815m; EBITDA around USD$2 per share. +$13 sp?
What about debt and/or dilution?
How "sustainable" are these earnings? i.e. do we assume that the company will eventually expand to new resources as it grows, meaning that "life goes on" or is it strictly limited to the current resources in the log-term. If SDV and JB are the only end-game, and limited to known reserves, then perhaps a valuation based on NPV is more relevant. Is this realistic though? IMO we'll grow as time goes on and we accumulate cash, and as opportunities for acquisitions etc are presented.
Anyway, there is clearly NO short/easy/accurate answer.
BUT, even at say a total of "only" 50ktpa of chemicals from SDV and JB combined, at only $5k/t margin, that is still earnings of around USD$0.63 per share.
Factor tax etc, and apply a P/E of say 12, and we still "should" have a sp over $5 (USD), or circa $7.50 (AUD).
IMO, any way you dice it, and even considering the years it will take to get our multiple assets producing, the current sp is C H E A P and the potential significant.
The above is just examining some scenarios and concepts to further discussion, not some comprehensive model or my specific "forecast" in any way. It is far too simplistic but can be useful as a starting point imo.
NOT advice
IMO
DYOR!!!
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