how high will nickel go?, page-8

Yes, there is a long way to go to get up to US$50k. This will be a point of heavy resistance due to our metal coins.

There are several reports of such levels being reached. This is influenced by the supply side of the equation.

Macquarie has indicated that without changes to Indo policy, this could occur in 2016. The current Ukraine thing might just be the icing on the cake.

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"Such a strong rally is in line with our expectations...that prices would rally towards $20,000/t by the end of 2014, but is well ahead of where we would have predicted the price to be by now,” said the investment bank in a note to investors.

“In the absence of a change in Indonesian policy, we think that by 2016, the market will get tighter than it did in 2006/07, when prices traders in the $30-50,000/t range.”

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If the ban remains in place beyond July’s presidential election in Indonesia, Macquarie says the global nickel market will see “massive” deficits of 134,000 tonnes, 106,000 tonnes and 77,000 tonne in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively.