Interested in some of the commentary about expected share price after first readout, particularly those correlating an increased share price with increased magnitude of effect measured by letters gained as a marker of visual acuity.
The study will be powered to show a statistically significant change in letters gained. Above this result the drug is likely to gain approval as a treatment, below it will not. My reading of comments made by the company over the past few years is that this number is somewhere between 2.5 and 3 letters.
I personally see this as a pretty binary outcome - below 2.5-3 letters it will be a wipeout (20-25c if I had to guess), above 3 letters it will fly (> $2 bearing in mind there will be a cap raise before Q3) with more to come if second trial positive obviously. I personally don't think a bigger increase in letters gained will have that much of an effect on share price but this is my opinion only.
I've sold a significant % of my holding at tidy profit in last month as IMO the easy money has already been made but still hold some for the result. GLAH.
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Interested in some of the commentary about expected share price...
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