How high will this go?, page-74

Drugs must demonstrate clinical significance. For example, if there is statistical proof of a 1-letter gain, that likely won’t be enough for approval. So, the "2nd prize " hypothetically speaking we might recover half our OPT investment (zero for options, could come if the overall gain is less than 3 letters, but IMHO only if a specific subgroup (PCV?) achieves 4 or more letters, meeting the threshold for clinical significance. I don’t think there’s a "3rd prize."

Obviously, I don’t want to sound too negative - maybe just a bit too much nervous waiting. That said, I believe with 80–85% certainty that we’ll see a gain of 3 or more letters ( US$2.5B/year) and around a 50/50 chance of hitting 5+ letters (US$4.1B/year?). That’s why I’m invested.