Not a bad gamble really when you consider the likely upside (many multiples higher than the current price) relative to the downside. Especially when you consider the information we have, existing very strong data, better patient cohort than P2 likely to show an even better response, FDA fast track designation, unusually strong and experienced management team with a solid track record of bringing similarly groundbreaking AMD treatments through clinical trials and to market, the observation (not often provided by companies during a trial) from COAST that average BCVA is already higher on average than what would be expected from the control group alone. Everything seems to point to a far higher than average probability of success (average probability of success at our stage being approx 60%). That’s at least my view on things, of course there’s a level of risk (as there is with any investment), though for these reasons I’ve decided to built a position in OPT far larger than my usual maximum investment in a pre-revenue biotech stock. The potential downside doesn’t seem much at all when you compare it to the upside of a stronger than expected (or even expected) readout and the eventual earnings (likely in the billions) that will come from success
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Not a bad gamble really when you consider the likely upside...
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