Don't think this is a bad estimate actually. Average P3 trial...

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    Don't think this is a bad estimate actually. Average P3 trial success is 60% I believe but I think it is very reasonable to say that OPT has better than average odds of success (the reasons provided above explain this quite well actually). 70% probability of success is really quite attractive when you consider the upside associated with a positive announcement, should more than double at open and continue higher in anticipation of the next readout. Could easily see $3-$5 by the time of the second readout
 
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