I haven't seen a thread but here is my valuation if 3.5+ letters gained in P3 trial:
US$15 billion global market
All current standard of care target VEGF-A (+/1 PLGF) and perform very similarly, avg 10.5 letter gain.
OPT302 is very likely in the future to become a combinate drug mixed with standard of care as singular formulation. A mere 3.5 letter gain from OPT302 creates a drug with vastly superior efficacy (if you were offered a drug that provides 10.5 letters and another that promises 14.0 letters and both were equally priced, it is very easy to see which one is going to dominate the market)
Currnet Regeneron annual Eylea sales of US$6 billion p.a.
Current Roche annual Vabysmo sales of US$4 billion p.a.
Exclusivity period for Eylea lasped in May 2024. Major Patents protecting the drup expire 2026 and 2027.
Lets not even consider the potential to dominate the US$15 billion market, but if you were the CEO of Regeneron or Roche, what would you pay to protect your existing US$4-6 billion in annual sales? I wouldn't even blink at buying out Opthea for US$6-10 billion. There is too much at stake for these companies not to have exclusive control over a drug that can give such a major competitive advantage.
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I haven't seen a thread but here is my valuation if 3.5+ letters...
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