....Construction is not slumping if you factor in mining
All mining activities generate less than 2% of all Australian jobs. Look at the HIA and MBA numbers and you know new housing construction has been plummeting for more than 18 months. Commmerical real estate is the next bloodbath. Empty offices and warehouses are ubiquitous all over Melbourne. Drive down St Kilda road and you see more FOR LEASE signs than trees. This is about to get a whole lot worse.
...retail is growing just moving more online
The online retail growth has been trending higher over the years. Much of the online bashing is a beat-up by the brick & mortar retailers to stifle competition. Retail growth is so anemic that Christmas spending is barely keeping up with last year. A sign that retail will CONTRACT based on current trend. This is why there is prediction of wide spread job losses. Big ticket items will suffer the worse. The online stuff may hold up for the time being especially the sub $1000 items attracting no GST.
....banking and manufacturing is moving jobs offshore because our wages are too high - this is a good sign of the strength of the economy
Banking is firing people en-masse (including many in management - hardly a good sign) so that the banks can protect their balance sheet in anticipation of a housing meltdown and a likely recession that will not only wipe out prospect in growth in revenue and profit, but will also saddle them with BILLIONS of bad loans. I would say the banks are already seriously behind the curve.
Tourism is hurt by the high dollar - the fact the dollar is high is a good sign
A high dollar has all but wiped out manufacturing in this country. The only reason why our dollar is high is because we have much high interest rate (relative to the US still stuck in the aftermath of their own housing crash). The other is commodity prices is still high. If the US dollar recovers once the US starts to show some sign of growth, the Aussie will be back at 90cents.
So in other words it is good sign for the economy that some sectors are in decline.
