how is the polling faring these days??

Originally posted by Osi: ↑

The following survey of flags Trump getting the vote from 50% of Whites, 4% of Blacks and 30% of Latinos and 37% of others. The data suggests that Trump will get 35% of the overall female vote.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us101520-crosstabs1/016bc5d8ae03038c/full.pdf

I am a little bit gobsmacked that 49% of people think they are better off than they were 4 years ago but it is what it is. Of more concern, 33% of voters are unwilling to take a vaccine. 36% see Trump as a unifying influence in comparison to Biden. I suspect that these cohorts overlap a lot.

31% of people say they have already voted.

My takeaways:

- Trump will lose the popular vote but not by as much as some of his opponents would like.

- Trump will likely lose the electoral college vote but only because most women don't like him.

- The Senate vote will be much closer, because conservative never-Trumpers and conservative Trump opponents may, like Bolton, withhold their presidential vote but none-the-less vote for GOP Senate candidates.

Some aspects of this election remain close.

Importantly, no consistent effort has been made to ensure there is capacity count a vast number of early mail votes. There is a good chance that they won't be counted by 7 November and that is when any Boogaloo moment could arise. ACB will be on SCOTUS by then but I wouldn't assume she would disenfranchise lawfully cast, correctly filled ballots. Originalists can be mechanical on such issues and looking to the intent of the Constitution when it was drafted my gut feel is that she'll say they should be counted.

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"ACB will be on SCOTUS by then but I wouldn't assume she would disenfranchise lawfully cast, correctly filled ballots. Originalists can be mechanical on such issues and looking to the intent of the Constitution when it was drafted my gut feel is that she'll say they should be counted."

Disagree. She'll stop the counting if it will help Trump. She has history.

A former law clerk and avowed disciple of the arch reactionary deceased leader of the right-wing bloc on the Supreme Court, Antonin Scalia, Barrett worked as a young lawyer in the firm headed by Republican power broker James Baker. There she helped prepare the legal arguments used by the George W. Bush campaign in 2000 in the infamous Bush v. Gore case, in which the Supreme Court halted vote counting in Florida and handed the presidency to the Republican loser. In his 2000 ruling, Scalia argued that the American people had no constitutional right to elect the President.
Rather, state legislatures were authorized to select the presidential electors regardless the popular vote in any given state.
Barrett is now poised to join two other justices who also worked on the Bush side of the legal case, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh."
,https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/10/17/barr-o17.html