Final numbers 465,000 approved to withdraw funds / average...

Final numbers 465,000 approved to withdraw funds / average withdrawal $8,000 - $3.8 billion..... mid between $3 billion and $5 billion is .... pretty much on the pace...........

Looking more broadly, the price movements in the oil price are being driven partly by political expediency but more importantly by a more fundamental dynamic: we are entering the commencement of an overall deflationary cycle in asset values. It is now inevitable that all asset values will deflate, with property values declining around 25%: this will result in many Australian homeowners having to negotiate the complexities of "negative equity" and those holding portfolios of negatively geared properties being placed under high levels of stress. This initial effects will be reflected in rising delinquency ratios followed by an acceleration in foreclosure notices. The CBA is well placed in this circumstance, with an average loan to value ratio of about 50%: but there will still be an impact on earnings, and the share price will not be insulated from the overall cycle.

I anticipate the market will balance at around the $45 for the CBA - about 20% down from current levels / circa 50% down from its December highs. Timing is difficult as the adage "It's not the truth that hurts, its just the realisation of it..." will firstly need to permeate into the property market: ... looking at Q4 / 2020 for the next significant downward movement in the CBA's share price to manifest, rising at year end all the usual reasons, before dropping to reach the anticipated lows in Q1 /2021 ... then we will need to re-assess: extending the collapse to mid-$20's is not a ridiculous suggestion but too early to justify...