-Unemployment under 5% - same as the US at the peak of their...

  1. 10,759 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 8
    -Unemployment under 5% - same as the US at the peak of their housing bubble in 2006. House prices invariably peak on low levels of unemployment (due to borrowers capacity to borrow and banks willingness to lend).

    -Delinquencies under 2% - again, all market tops in history start out with low delinquencies which then grow as the downturn escalates. Delinquencies are already on the rise throughout Australia.

    -Savings rate at 10 year high - but household debt levels are just coming off an all-time high. Japan had the highest savings rate in the world but it didn't stop their housing bubble from collapsing throughout the 1990s.

    Australian house prices peaked during Q2 of 2010, shortly after household debt peaked (thanks to the rush of FHBs taking 'advantage' of the government's FHOB). Yet per capita wealth peaked back in 2007. House prices only rose due to the final and most marginal borrowers (FHBs) being enticed into the market en masse by short-sighted government incentives and the spruikers proclamations that house prices must continue to rise because of a supposed housing shortage. Those young FHBs who get burnt because of a correction in house prices should direct their anger to the real estate lobbyist, not shoot the messengers who warn of the inevitable.

    Yep. Things are not different in Australia...
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.