reasonable question ----------- but, not easy to answer these days, because - times are different.
It would be very unusual for Labor not to get a second term and probably to ride it to the end -
so, if one assumed that - that takes us to about 2028 -- about 2/3rds of the way through 2028
so, that's about 4 years and 6 months
It's impossible to predict a week ahead in politics at any time - even tomorrow is impossible with certainty
but, this era ------- 4 and a half years away. The changes that will happen in society in that time - will be at least the same amount of changes that have happened over several decades past.
'at least' are the words of interest there. With such disruptive changes like AI getting traction - and god knows what else coming - 4 or 5 years out - pfffffffffffffffft
we might as well be trying to predict 100 years ahead.
AI alone - people haven't in general got the scale of what's going on there -- AI isn't just some kind of new technology, like going from a typewriter to a computer based word processor -
oh, no - it's got a lot more clout than that. AI will not only be doing it's AI things like giving smart or dumb answers on phone help lines or chat bots and inventing whizzbang new materials ------
that's a monster thing - but, it's going to be doing a LOT more than that - it's going to be building itself - building better AI systems - building better robots, and those better robots will be building better and better robots
now, the speed with which these things work - compared to us mere mortals, is mind boggling ------------- so 4 or 5 years ----------------- my god.
What's it got to do with Albo and Labor? --------------- well, everything.
Governments and political parties will be guts up in all of this AI and robotic stuff - it will not only be guts up in managing the laws and subsidies etc for the use of the tech - it will also be USING the tech for it's own political purposes - and that alone will change politics.
My guess has been for a few years now - and I see absolutely zero reason to change atm -
that people will chop and change governments - even governments that perform relatively well ----------- what the over riding thing will be is the speed of change - and the rate of change
in general, populations fear change - and when the society is changing so rapidly - there will be a lot of people left behind and a lot of people in fear of things like - 'I might be the next one to be left behind'
to me - that will bring change at the ballot box - out of pure simple fear - people will vote for a different crew - because they will blame the mob who are in for the changes going on around them - even if it's got nothing to do with the politics
that's us - we operate totally on fear - and we fear change
so, how long in the wilderness? - hard to say -------- the Libs are dead or dying - but, people grasp at the dead for faith
need refs for that? ------------- It's Easter - no better ref needed.
So, at some stage they might reach out for the dead Libs - when? pfffffffffft, how long is a piece of string
