how long, page-15

Dazed, the "black swan event" is the term you are looking for.
I dont disagree entirely, but I think a simple supply demand calc should help clarify the situation.
I put up a global jewellery demand picture up the other day, and that sort of says it all.
Knowing how the Indian jewellers operate, they sell their finished product by weight, so they have to be savvy enough to buy gold at the low points to the relative market to pay for labour. I assume the Chinese jewellers operate in much the same way. Given the level of demand from those two countries as wealth improves, the downside is pretty well supported by those buyers. If, however, those jewellers believe there is going to be a sustained rise in price for what ever reason, they will start paying up. I think, quite simply, the jewellery demand at these levels will force the market higher, especially as other sources of supply drop. ETF's have largely done their dash, and scrap, I was interested to read the other day, is down 13% from last year, which makes sense, since scrap doesn't attract as many players at these lower levels (think church roof lead when there is a lead boom). Gold mine production is unchanged.