sergeantRegards a 'black swan...

sergeant

Regards a 'black swan event'.....


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dream-of-us-energy-independence-was-just-revised-away-2014-05-22?link=MW_home_latest_news


" The U.S. shale oil “miracle” took a major hit Wednesday, when the federal government announced a hefty downward revision of its estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in the No. 1 shale reserve in the U.S.: the Monterey formation in California.

As recently as this week, the much-publicized Monterey formation accounted for nearly two-thirds of all technically recoverable U.S. shale oil resources, standing at a world-class 13.7 billion barrels. But on Wednesday, that estimate was downgraded to a mere 600 million barrels, or 96% lower than the day before. "



Most of the impetus for what US recovery there has been is due to the surge of cheap energy in recent years [mostly gas]. As the article above goes on to point out, the cheap credit has been the mainstay for much of the development of these fields. So.... Fed taper, reduced reliance on the $US as the reserve, higher import costs for energy [in the longer run] ... that looks like higher borrowing costs for the US, higher inflation and slower growth.

Not quite a black swan ... definitely an ugly duckling...