SMN 2.90% 71.0¢ structural monitoring systems plc

How long ?, page-309

  1. 1,169 Posts.
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    I'm with you guys. I too have been critical of management in the past, however I feel they have learnt their lesson about giving unrealistic timelines. Their recent commentary has been much more conservative while still inspiring confidence that we will become a viable company in the second half of 2018.
    I don't support the call for an EGM, and nor do I support the call for constant updates from the company from several members of this forum. The last thing we need is empty updates in an attempt to massage the SP. Ironically some of the people wanting these regular updates are the same people calling for blood for past perceived P&D's by management. I for one would be far more concerned if management were releasing regular fluff announcements, in fact I may have bailed if they were.
    There is no need to manipulate the SP to keep it down as there are plenty of explanations for its weakness.
    1. Investor fatigue. Many expected a ROI much earlier than newer shareholders are likely to see one. Many would have also sold out for a loss by now. While the last update had everything in it I wanted to hear, for some I suspect that it indicated it would be too long before they would see a return. Classic example of "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." – Warren Buffett
    2. Opportunity cost. For some investors the length of time before we are likely to see take off is simply too long. They may try and return in 2H 2018 while investing their SMN cash elsewhere for a quick return.
    3. Burnt retail investors. I suspect that some of the institutional guys knew we had no hope of revenue back when management were touting a deal was imminent. They sold into the rapidly rising share price to unsuspecting retail investors (myself included - I had been watching the company for months and only bought in when I thought a deal was close). Realization then set in over the coming months and those same institutional investors have been able to mop up shares at a much cheaper price from retail investors who bought the hype and sold out for heavy losses. Once those investors have been burnt many will be hesitant to jump back in, and sadly they will likely miss out on a lot of profits once we get that big announcement we are all waiting for.
    4. As has been mentioned in the past, this trading is pretty typical for a disruptive tech company at this stage of the game. This is where much of the smart money is buying up shares prior to take-off. This lull often follows the hype due to the game changing technology of tech companies when they inevitably take longer for customer adoption to take place than many expect. After all the technology is a no brainer- it saves airlines money while making them safer. Those of us that believe in the technology can't believe it isn't being adopted yesterday let alone today! But then we discover how slow the wheels of regulating agencies like the FAA turn (with good reason - can't go changing standards willy nilly) and we enter an extended period of SP weakness. I still say the smart money is buying. I only have enough spare coin for one more buy so I am watching and waiting and will buy more if it gets below a certain level.

    Each to their own, and please DYOR!
 
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