Yes when their own(sbbp) mc has halved you often wonder about the strength of the 1103 deal. But they are looking to register their drug cor-003 at the end of 2017. Providing there phase3 is successful.
This year they have to pay a milestone to anp at the start of 1103's phase 3 trial(5 plus mill imo)...and cover the actual cost of the trial which Im guessing maybe another 5-10m.
They have approx. 70mill in the bank so by the time they pay for 2x phase 3 trials plus our milestone plus running costs that should easily halve. So youd want to hope they can get their drug through to registration so they can actually generate some income and honour the 1103 deal. If its a dud then I suppose they may focus all their energies on 1103 and getting that quickly through to registration.
Meanwhile Anp looks destined for the 4s and valued at cash backing maybe. The options are worthless as it would be nigh on impossible for this to 6 bag from here and give anp a mc of 60million.
1102 deal IF and when it materialises will be back ended like 1103. Upfront? what maybe 10 mill maybe 15 best case. The rest of it wont get valued if history has shown us anything which leaves us at a mc of maybe $20-25m tops- including milestone from sbbp mid year.. Half of what is required to get the options in the money making then still worthless.
Other than that what is there .....well they will start spending all that cash on the next experiment no doubt which again will take years and years to mature.
The only possible wild card left in the deck is generating revenues from Mytommorows selling 1102. Even if they generated $6mill in sales over 12 months it wont start till mid 2016. Options exp jan 2017.
A permanent revenue stream from 1102 and eventual registration of 1103 will give the company/ shareholders value but really demonstrating this is 12 months away for one and 2 years or more away for the other.
Its not good news for oppy holders but heads should recover some ground once they hit some goals mid year or slightly early if 1102 gets signed up.
Disappointing to see a large seller about to go splat at the bottom of the cycle. But if you cant wait and there are no buyers then your basically routed.
....it is what it is at this stage which aint much.
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