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Anton Chigurh

13,097 Posts.

236

08/09/14

00:36

Post #: 13937872
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Originally posted by heraclitus ↑

Haven't I explained that all before? Check your historical stocks-to-use ratios versus current and look at the s&d for each complex. Heck, Canada is still struggling to even outurn last season's bumper canola crop into world markets.

Oz on-track for a 23-24Mmt crop this year, assuming all remains constant, follow-up rain in Vic/NSW, average finishing rainfall for SA/WA etc

As for price, unless Vladimir goes absolutely nuts, we are looking at a scenario of ample world supplies of: wheat, barley, corn, soy beans and canola. This will make it difficult for domestic prices to gather stream. More alarming is our local basis, which is factoring-in smaller crops than what is currently on track to be binned and quite high Chinese demand to support our crops. This does not bode well for price once growers start selling or if either of the two scenarios mentioned above don't play-out as planned (i.e. less Chinese demand or good/excellent finish)

Hopefully strong yields neutralise lower harvest prices, though many farmers have forwards in at $300+ on at least a portion of their wheat crop.

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ps: 80% chance of severe El Nino my are!

Confirms my view that long range forecasts (months in advance) are as useful as throwing darts at a board.
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