how low will it go?, page-41

Jay

This is going to sound negative, but please accept these comments as they are intended; to help you with your research on oil stocks. I have spent a fair bit of time in making these comments.

1) These small oil companies do not have sustaniable earnings. Don't buy these stocks on a low PE, as it will just increase with time, unless they get further success. Buy for the success, not based on a PE.

2) The Tui project is expected to produce about 5 million barrels of oil for the financial year, or potentially a bit lower. This has been stated by AWE and NZOG. It will decline further in the future, based on the current producing wells (4 only). This is demonstrated in the AWE and NZOG production charts. The lesson here is to read all the data and not rely on a single source. Also, look at the Operators website and recent presentations as they will mostly be more up to date than the junior partner.

3) Many companies will not comment on future predictions, as they are binding. Also, if its not been released to ASX dont expect an answer as this will breach there legal obligations and thay can go to gaol.

4) Dont Mix US$ oil prices with A$ earnings. Also think about other costs like depreciation, tax and operating costs when looking to predict earnings. Your attempt on this post is not at all good.

5) On Vietnam, I feel sorry for PPP, but I beleive that they were niave in not getting the deal claered by PV in advance. AWE saw this as an issue and got clearance. It shows the core difference between the 2 companies.

6) Further Tui drilling will happen in 2010, after the Rockhopper-1 and Hoki-1 wells. This is clear from the AWE presentations. (again research). PPP will be hesitant to comment on pure timing, as they do not control the timetable, and their information is only as good as what AWE tell them, as they are in the JV's where the earlier drilling is taking place.

Again please do not take these comments as being negative. I am trying to help.

I do not own PPP shares now, but I held a big posistion while the Vietnamese drilling was current. I sold on the hype, as I was concerned about the PV pre-emption.

I hope this helps.

Have a great New Years

Cheers

Al