Dargie, not sure about shonky... I feel they have made some ill informed decisions in the last few months. The SP is discounted accordingly as investors lose faith in the current Management decision making (Vietnam) and the lack of luck in finding new oil revenue.
10c value for Tui oil sales for its future is very undervalued IMO, as they have quite a bit of oil to derive from the field yet... As stated near 20c seems fairer.
They will definately need some luck and better Management decisions-negoitations in 2010 to gain 'Fair Market Value' on the stock market.
It is amazing to me that many still HOLD the stock when the sentiment is very poor. If you do not believe in the Management and future drills you should exit... As I did after the last dry run. The risk to reward ratio definitely went down after this... Yet in the low 30s SP it will look better in terms of risk-reward.
If you have some hope then exit and re-enter at a lower SP. As IMO it will become lower again with the next dry drill, then the best hope they have is to drill around Tui for more. I am advised this will be March 2010...
I have seen it coming down since the mid 50s to now the mid-late 30s. The sentiment in the Management is very low and they need some good deals to restore confidence.
2010 is a big year for this company- many make or break projects. It is worth a punt for the highly risk adverse. Yet as I stated the current price is not for me yet...I will look at a re-entry price near 30c. As to me that is giving the company a very negative enterprise value for the future... It is worth a PUNT at those levels.
However as mentioned any sniff of oil from future drills will be way too late to re-enter with the SP in the 30's. I do not expect much to happen for several months, yet who knows....
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