I think you are being overly pessimistic. As you note, debt peaks at Sept 2011 and the gearing test will be stretched.
But I think a capital raising is out of the question unless shares go well over 10 cents. The institutions who backed the last raising at 10 cents would go nuts. The management (ex owners) who have been paid deferred compensation in shares would go crazy. And the CEO has a large chunk of the company at 10 cents funded by a company loan, and that would be rendered worthless by a raising.
A more likely, and from my perspective, preferable scenario would be selective asset sales. The sale of one or two agencies to release $20-$40 million at a reasonable multiple will give them more than enough headroom if they feel it necessary.
Longer term holders are rightly upset about where it has ended up, but it seems to me that the current share price gives more than enough protection for the real risks that the company faces. To me the main thing that this situation requires some patience and fortitude.
PGA Price at posting:
75.6¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
