how much dividend?

Most here expect SLR to begin paying a dividend in the not too distant future.
I began to wonder how much dividend.
I run a spreadsheet on SLR as I do with any company I invest in.
My spreadsheets are usually quite conservative as long as things don't go to far wrong with the company.
My spreadsheet proved very conservative for 2012 despite the company missing forecast sales.

For 2014, I have a forecast free after tax cash flow estimate of $183mill.

That is after company guidance of all development costs, sustaining capex, admin etc.
I allowed 28mill exploration for 2014 ($18mill on gold and $10mill for copper).
Hopefully my 2014 cash flow also works out too conservative and we see $200mill or more.
Before the merger most brokers forecast much stronger earnings than I was forecasting on my spreadsheet.
I haven’t seen any for the merged entity yet.
Working on the $183mill, how much might be paid out in dividends?
Considering all development costs, sustaining capex, tax and royalties, admin etc and exploration are allowed for in the free after tax cash flow number, what else does the company need the cash for?
They will no doubt want to rebuild the cash balance after Murchison is finished.
If they pay out half the $183mill, then cash in the bank should still build back up to around $130mill.
If they do the same for the following year, the cash balance would build up to around $220mill, and so on.
It seems reasonable that they should be able to comfortably payout 50% of that free cash each year and the cash balance will still build rapidly as well (by $90mill per year).
$90mill per year dividend on a $1bill mc equates to 9% and I can't see why there won't be a franking credit.
They may take a more conservative approach but I don't see the need to.
They have already achieved their aim of becoming a 1 bill mc company. They have at least a 10 year mine life at Mt Monger on current resources thanks to the merger and near 10 years at Murchison. I have allowed $10 mill per year on copper exploration, and $18mill on gold.
They could easily use some of the non div cash to increase exploration expenditure after the bank balance has built in order to extend mine life further or for further acquisitions. Cash flow is very likely to be boosted further by 2015/2016 with copper revenue. Hollandaire already should have enough scale on the high grade ore considering the proximity to Murchison plant and the shallow ore body.
Even if it's a little lower than 9% yield franked, it still should be a very attractive yield from a very well managed large gold company with a good diversification of mines and plant in a very stable country.
If the market expects 50% payout then I doubt we will see a 9% yield because by the time we see a div announcement, the sp should rise quite a bit in anticipation.
Even if the sp doubles, a 4.5% yield will still be very good.
If they payout significantly less than 50% then the cash balance will build much more rapidly and we get less dividend but more growth in the sp to compensate.
I have now gone back to holding this stock long term (although I will likely continue to trade some as well).