How much do you think of the fair SP for LTR to be acquired, page-118

Some calcs for ideas…

$2.50 future value in 18 months (production assumption) assuming a 6% interest rate (change by all means) is worth around $2.70-$2.80 depending on method of calculation.

So then assuming a P/E ratio of say 8, that suggests earnings of about $0.30.

Now with 2.2B SOI, that’s company earnings of about $660M (AUD). Assume exchange rate circa 0.78, that’s about $514M (USD) and that’s assumed annual earnings.

So, ignoring taxes, royalties, costs etc (assume they are all nil values - yep, I know) … let’s see what volume of spod that equates to … let’s assume spod price of say $4,000, that’s annual volume of 128,000T. At $3,000 it’s 170,000T.

Anyone want to hazard a guess how realistic it is that an annualised production rate for LTR is anywhere near that small a volume of spod sales? Yeah I know there’s a bunch of assumptions and rough guts calcs in this … but hey, this thread is for just throwing out some numbers with no justification isn’t it … or are there ways to justify why the suggested $2.50 is ridiculous… or even $3.00 …

I say ALB will need to bring up the offer price a fair bit before my calculator starts to get interested.

Shorters will need to find parachutes I think.