CTO 11.1% 0.4¢ citigold corporation limited

Reading their two reports (Inferred Resources and Probable Ore...

  1. 95 Posts.
    Reading their two reports (Inferred Resources and Probable Ore Reserves) of 2005 on the web site highlights several relevant points:

    1)They added two mining factors into the Inferred Resource - a minimum ore body width of 1 metre (which dilutes the grade of narrow intersections), and a payability of 30%, which discounts the tonnes by a massive 70%. This reduces the risk in the Inferred category. They are confident 80% of Resources will convert to Reserves.

    2) They used the lowest density of 2.7 tonnes/cubic metre, knowing that at ore grades of 10 g/t the density rises to 3.2. This means each cubic metre could contain an extra 20% of tonnes (and therefore ounces at the same grade. The ounces are understated by at least 20%.

    3) They used a high cut-off grade of 7 g/t to get the 330,000 ounces in Reserves at 2005 gold prices. At today's prices, the cut-off is about 3 g/t for a profitable mine ( 1 g/t is worth about A$40, so 3 g/t is worth about A$120 a tonne, which is a benchmark mining cost per tonne - about $80/t mining and $30/t processing plus $10/t admin). In their Reserves report, the tonnage-ounce curve shows that at a 3 g/t cut-off, the Probable Reserve is 700,000 ounces with an 85% confidence limit. The head grade reduces to about 8 g/t as more low-grade ore is include, but still quite respectable .

    4) A Reserve ounce can be valued at the current profit margin per ounce times the confidence limit (say A$700 per ounce, with their cash cost of $470/oz and current price of A$1280/oz. This values the Reserve at 700,000 x $700, or A$490,000,000. So the asset backing of the Reserve for the share price should give them a market cap of $490 M compared to the current $140 M (3 times higher than present) so the share price just based on the Rserve backing should be 3 times higher than present, or 60 cents.

    This is a very undervalued company.
 
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