"Cairn is valued at $1.15B, doubling this is a gain of $1.15B on...

"Cairn is valued at $1.15B, doubling this is a gain of $1.15B on a 40% share of Senegal. Therefore the whole portion of Senegal is $2.87B. (2.87 / .4). FAR has 15% of this, which is $430M (2.87 x .15). FAR's SP is ~$85M, this would indicate a 6 times uplift for FAR. ((430 + 85) / 85). 6 times the current shareprice of 3.6 cents is 21.6 cents."

I may be missing something but if 40% of Senegal is worth $2.3 B (1.15 x 2 after success for Cairn) then surely 100% has to be more than double that and in fact $5.75 B (ie 2.3/0.4)? And then FAR's 15% share would be $860 M (5.75 x 0.15). Or almost exactly a 10 fold increase as KKW guesstimated.

" the unrisked weighting provides $235.50 to FAR, this is 65 times the current "

The unrisked value of 235 cents to FAR is on success of all 11 prospects listed in the table which is never going to happen. You just have to multiply all the chances of success for the 11 prospects in the table to get a truly tiny number (less than lotto by my quick calculation). Having said that, if one of the prospects comes in then the chances of success for other geologically similar prospects immediately increases markedly. There are a number of play types listed so yes it could end up that a few are successes but all 11 never.

"overall un-risked potential for the share is $9.05"....."un-risked potential of 251 times"

Again this is only on success of all 25 or so prospects in Senegal, Kenya, Guinea Bissau. Odds of that would be like winning lotto many times.

Yes we have lots of exciting prospects but at the same time need to keep it a bit real as people can easily be dazzled by big numbers. If you go onto the FAR site and look up the StockAnalysis report on FAR (Oct 2013) then he puts success value on the two Senegal drills at approx 17 and 9 cents