How much is Lynas worth? Let's assume for a minute, like many shareholders appear to be, that Lynas is not approved. What is the value of tangible and intangible property currently paid for by Lynas?
The Mt. Weld location is already producing and stockpiling very high grade concentrate ore and this is something that is the final goal of many companies. True LAMP will be a huge feather in the cap of the entire rare earth process but it is possible that LAMP may be booted out of Malaysia.
The plant property and equipment on the ground in Kuantan is very valuable equipment. Much of it is very high tech and can easily be used in another location. It has also been installed using much IP (intellectual property) and has resulted in the accrual of very valuable experience.
In short, Lynas as a company is the leader in developing Rare Earth projects even if LAMP is not approved. It is the "IBM" of the rare earth world and IMO there are few companies even in the same league with Lynas.
So the question becomes, whether or not Rae Earths will become a valuable commodity in the future... Anyone who thinks they won't is not paying attention to the research and development occurring throughout the world. Everything from fiber optic cables, to nuclear batteries to hydro carbon cracking are under development and require the use of RE products. RE's are here to stay and will be needed in vast quantities....
IMO basing the value of Lynas purely on the approval of LAMP shows pretty narrow vision, not only does Lynas possess significant tangible assets with Mt. Weld, Malawi the physical value of LAMP and so on, Lynas posses tremendous value as a leader in IP and experience in the RE industry. Take a look at IBM for a second. While they are a hardware company, they are primarily an IT company that functions as a consulting operation providing computer IP to their clients. There is no reason Lynas cannot fill the same role in the nascent technology of Rare Earths...
In any even, just considering the PP&E and tangible assets possessed by Lynas represent quite a premium over the current market cap. This excludes the intangible assets that make Lynas the predominate development company in the RE development space… Hmmm, the definition of value investing IMHO...
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