how much low will it go?, page-25

Hi Kiwoz48,

I have been following your posts with interest, and others of course. June qtr - you could be right not just from an FML perspective but macro as well.

Gold broke out of the pattern I have been following and it heading south with a bounce pretty soon and a third leg down. This slow motion train wreck of a debt collapse happens in stages and a couple of carriages have now leaned off the track. Agonising to watch. Many Jews did not leave Germany until it was too late.

This is a very important point in history, it is not a cyclical pull back like 68, 74, 82 etc, much more serious. I believe the FML strategy was not for short term fluctuations in gold they can only ride the big trend as a miner.

The AUD should fall off significantly during the crisis as the carry trade unwinds - RBA is likely to keep dropping rates IMO. Risk off and unwind the carry and the AUD wont be conducive for OS travel for a while. This should lessen the impact of a falling USD gold price. Money flows out of European area and banks, USD getting pushed up, investors stepping aside from gold due to this effect...

March will be better than December, June better again maybe hitting their straps by then it sure takes time when you are dealing with weather, machinery, labor markets and millions of tonnes of rock and dirt.

This thread can now find a more pleasant balance I believe as well.

I turned back to trading this last couple of months, what a rough year I believe some stats out indicate that traders have lost 30% this year. One of my most savvy investors cut just before the last run up back into the bear flag on the XGD - in response to what I was telling him, and his own research. The bottom point we are skidding towards is the opportunity of a lifetime, stay focused on the gold stocks in general. I am taking some drastic steps to protect my capital at present - time to be the boy scout IMO.

Cheers,
CW
DYOR&DD