That is right ... the discount that I have used is 5% + 13% =...

That is right ... the discount that I have used is 5% + 13% = 18% (conservative)
Increasing Moisture to 6.5% has a $1M impact on cash flow
I assume AGO will be shipping 15Mt next year of which only 12.5Mt is standard fines (excluded value fines completely)
Reducing production to 10Mt reduces cash flow to $51M (from $65).

Upside from movements in:
1) iron ore price
2) reduced spread to 5-10% (historical)
3) FX rate

DYOR