How much oil in Phoenix South and more

Hi Guys

I have been reviewing what we know about Phoenix South, Phoenix and Roc with an attempt to define a deterministic volume of oil initially in place and what that means assuming a 30% recovery, just to give us a possible total upside which we can then adjust it downwards.

PS 3D seismic has a closure of 48 sq km, a net 130 m of oil, porosity of 7% assuming 30% recovery gives a recoverable reserve of 684 million stock tank barrels.

P 12 sq km, 100m of oil, same as before = 130 million stock tank barrels.

Roc 68 sq, 100 m of oil, as before = 712 stock tank barrels.

Total Maximum recoverable reserves = 1.526 billion barrels.

As CVN has 20% the net numbers for CVN is 305 million stock tank barrels.

Biggest unknown are

1, Has Roc trapped any oil?

2, Lateral extent and thickness of the reservoir layer penetrated.

3, Recovery factor.

So forget about Roc and Phoenix, staying with

Phoenix South at 684 million barrels recoverable,

CVN 20% = 137 million barrels at $10 risked per barrel = $1.37 billion = $1.40 per share.

Bottomline is that CVN is really really cheap

PS going sailing for the afternoon so if you have any comment directly to me I will try and reply in a few hours.