i did see some analysis on this in jp morgan research - they were talking down the uranium stocks in that first surge earlier this year on basis that uranium supply would be adequate for years
but i;d caution you against just looking at supply/demand
in my view, they are incorrectly using an 'industrial commodity' model - ie pure market supply demand drives price
like gold, uranium is a rare product with small number of suppliers, no direct substitutes and a much lower rate of 'recycling' than economic models would typically assume and govt restrictions that also limit free flow of recycled uranium to meet demand
the other aspect they rarely consider about uranium is that a large % uranium price results in only a small % increase to cost of power production - because uranium oxide generates so much energy.
as a result, uranium.. like hard coking coal for eg, has potential for very high price rises even when market appears to be roughly in balance - if supply certainty concerns or moderate demand profile increases emerge.
ill have a look for that jp morgan note - but its a few months old. if i find i will share
their argument was effectively prices wont move for 5 years. (when spot hit $us31/lb)
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