What We Know
late March: Strategic Review Launched
This would be a 2 month process.
a) first month (April) - marketing to prospective buyers
b) second month (May) - prospective buyers make indicative bids
Early June, Mike Utsler and BOD determine that there is sufficient interest at a price acceptable to Molton that a Sales Process could likely be concluded.
Mid-June, Steve Herrod appointed to CEO to bring Sales Process to a successful conclusion.
An interesting question is How Did Otto find Steve Herrod?
IMO, it is very likely that Mike Utsler recruited Steve to conclude the sales process. Why?
1. Steve's M&A skill set would likely increase the Sales Price.
2. Mike doesn't have the required skill set to maximise sale price, and crossing the t's and dotting the i's would be a tedious process.
Mike U has an additional USD$200,000 LTI at stake if certain liquidity events are achieved by Dec 31st, '23.
I believe that it is extremely likely that Mike and Steve have been very good friends for a very long time: being from the same area; a similar age so their working lives would have crossed on numerous occasions.
I believe that it is very likely that Mike arrange the appointment of (his mate) Steve,
When Will the Liquidity Events Occurs
The appointment of Herrod implies that there are multiple buyers for assets: otherwise, there is nothing to negotiate.
The assets for sale are not that complex, and in the scheme of things are not worth a lot, so negotiation would be relatively straight forward.
However, it is likely to be an iterative process with negotiating parties taking new deals/proposals to their respective Company Directors, which would take time as parties gradually withdraw from the process.
As Otto knows the number of bidders, and their decision-making structure, Otto/Steve would be able to estimate reasonably accurately how long a sale process would likely take to playout.
Why Do I Think That the Shareholder Vote Will Be Tied to the AGM.
The elapsed time June-to now seems reasonable to conclude the iterative negotiation process.
We should be getting close IMO.
The longer negotiations drag on, indicates that there are still multiple bidders for at least one of the main assets.
Steve Herrod's initial appointment is until Dec 31st, 2023, with a possible extension to Mar 31st, 2023, to earn bonus.
And a very strong indicator for me is that Mike U has an additional USD$200,000 LTI at stake if certain liquidity events are achieved by Dec 31st, '23.
I am sure that both Mike and Steve like money, so they must be comfortable with the Dec 31st deadline.
Otto is clearly stating that the Liquidity Events should be signed by Dec 31st, 2023.
This implies that a shareholder meeting to approve sales would be required early December at the latest.
I believe that they would be more likely to delay the AGM rather than calling an EGM so soon after the 2023 AGM.
Time will tell.
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