In terms of exploration, how often do you see a genuine new potential multi TCF gas discovery? I mean of the size and nature of a world class discovery?
Obviously not daily and not much in the last year.
its hard to get a handle on the size of this sugarloaf well. In terms of gas discovered in australia. Approximately 180 Tcf of gas has been discovered of which about 20 Tcf have been produced. Production stands at about 1 Tcf/a and as reasonable depletion profile would be for it to rise at about 10% a year to a plateau at 6 Tcf/a from 2020 for about 20 years.
So if SL get say 1.5+ tcf then its size is a little under 10% of what has been produced in gas in australia todate!!
In terms of size, sugarloaf is about the one of the largest onshore undrilled gas exploration targets left in the USA.
Most oil and gas companies would do anything to get their hands on a find of this size, smack in the middle of one of the most prolofic production areas in the world for oil and gas.
I dont think you will see a gas find of this magnitude again onshore in the US for some time to come, and if i was to be investing in any gas well of this size i would only want it to be in perhaps a handful of places on the globe. mid texas would be ideal!!
The secondaries at SL are equally attractive. Although the size of primary drowns out the secondaty targets, they are none the less considerable. What intrigues me is that the texas crude operator is not the slightest bit interested in the secondaries potential, inspite of the very promising gas shows throughout the drill. They have only one focus, the primary. We see the recent announcements from the JVP's telling us that the primary is to be flow tested, oh, and they have a plan B for the secondaries, but in no way is it part of the plan. If the primary is productive i cant see them risking the well on any further flow testing. it will be a case of the well being put into production immediately
and further development wells going ahead straight away.
So where does it leave the secondaries. obviously with ADI already having scheduled wells for the SL before TD in their last quarterly, its safe to assume they are confident enough to go ahead without flow testing.
Seems to me ADI are bullish on the secondaries and the primary is the number one priority on texas crudes agenda.
I remain bullish on the secondaries like ADI, and i like the way tecas crude thinks on the primary.. all ahead full!!
looking forward to a very interesting month ahead!
good luck to those on this stock!!
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