Well, stupid is a bit harsh. But I can certainly find a far more plausible explanation around: 1) early focus groups going 65%+, 2) the large bank of political capital held by the Albanese Government, 3) the Prime Minister's personal yearning to be the next Labor Prime Minister with a substantial legacy, 4) the momentum of a NSW election win and oddly favourable by-election result hot on the heels of a resounding federal win, and 5) the shock and awe campaign I'm sure they had started planning way back at the beginning; and maybe, if I'm being particularly judgemental, 6) the same people that decided they wanted to have a Voice with the unending ear of the Prime Minister and cabinet couldn't help but eye off a seat for themselves. All those - which are pretty much facts - can mash together to produce this stunning failure.
In the interests of thoroughness, I had countenanced the possibility, that this failure was deliberate. It was pretty easy to dismiss though, mainly because a) by necessity it would have to have involved the Prime Minister, and he's just not that good an actor, and b) I couldn't really see a purpose to it.
I did consider it though. The Yes campaign was really, really woeful. Calling people stupid, spitting on them, talking past the no concerns, intertwining an extraordinarily tough ask with something as simple as recognition - running dead would explain a lot. But I couldn't think of an upside. Can you articulate one?
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