How things might play out .Part 2 Dorado.

here are some big assumptions, not mine but a starting point to stop the blind leading the blind. Before the usual suspects start bagging them , feel free to insert your own numbers.
Firstly a discovery on the NWS of 50 million bbls would be nice . 100 million bbls would be economically very robust, however , the way Quadrant was talking I would think there could be a great deal more. Let’s assume 500 million bbls which would make it one of the best in Australia for many years and certainly a world class discovery.
Rocks share would be 20% , or 100 million bbls.
Now here is where it gets tricky. The net present value per bbl, undeveloped in the ground , might be some where around $30/bbl. Feel free to plug your own number in there but it could be higher or lower depending on many factors such as oil price, development plan and budget, time to first oil etc etc.
So, Rocs share of that value would be 500 million bbls x 20% x $30/bbl npv, which equals $3 billion.
I think Roc has approx 1.2 billion shares on issue , so that works out roughly to $2.50 per share.
In addition , there might be commercial quantities of gas, which is hard to value , no ready market, and needs pipelines etc. So just treat gas as possible icing on the cake. I have not mentioned various taxes that will apply, so maybe they are offset by the gas .
Another factor for Roc will be financing and probable cap raisings and subsequent dilution.
Anyway , as I said , just a discussion starting point from someone who works in the oil and gas business, and has run economics for years.
If it worked out like I say above , it could still be a five bagger from here, eventually.
As always, “you pays your money and takes your chances”